AGP Executive Report

Power & Infrastructure: United Capital PLC secured investment banking licences in Ethiopia and Rwanda, positioning itself as the first foreign firm licensed for full-scale investment banking in Ethiopia and expanding pan-African capital market services. Transport & Industry: JUNTU Technologies inaugurated an Addis Ababa showroom and after-sales hub for Chery’s OMODA and JAECOO EVs, as Ethiopia shifts toward electric vehicles after halting gasoline and diesel passenger vehicle imports. Energy & Grid Reliability: Kenya’s Ketraco energised the 400kV Isinya–Konza line and Konza substation in a Sh8.4bn project aimed at boosting power reliability for Konza Technopolis and surrounding demand. Macroeconomy & Costs: The World Bank forecast Sub-Saharan Africa growth at 4.0% for 2026, warning higher energy prices could lift oil exporters while raising fuel, fertilizer and transport costs for others. Security & Stability: Analysts warn Ethiopia faces escalating political and security risks as TPLF moves to reconstitute structures amid wider Horn realignments. Trade & Exports: Ethiopia reported export earnings surpassing $9.8bn in the first 11 months of its 2018 fiscal year, exceeding targets and citing producer and exporter efforts. Rural Development: Ethiopian Red Cross projects are improving water access and related health outcomes in drought-affected areas of Amhara and Oromia.

Housing & Urban Development: Central Equatoria State (Juba) signed a partnership with Ethiopia’s Federal Housing Corporation to accelerate housing construction, urban planning and infrastructure upgrades, aiming to meet rising demand and unlock investment opportunities. EVs & Automotive Transition: JUNTU Technologies inaugurated an Addis Ababa showroom and after-sales center for Chery’s OMODA and JAECOO EVs, as Ethiopia shifts away from gasoline/diesel passenger imports and pushes greener transport. Aviation Costs: The Iran war is driving up jet fuel prices and straining African airlines, with fuel already 30–40% of operating costs and carriers forced to rethink routes and expansion plans. Carbon Markets Governance: African governments are moving carbon trading from scattered projects to state-controlled systems, using registries and legal frameworks to manage carbon as a regulated asset. Agriculture & Food Security: BRICS adopted the Indore Declaration, backing farmers’ seed rights, digital agriculture and climate-resilient farming, with India coordinating key initiatives. Ethiopia Exports: Ethiopia reported export earnings of $9.8bn in the first 11 months of FY2018 (ET), surpassing targets and citing producer/exporter efforts. Security & Research: Ethiopia’s agricultural research system is urged to better serve lowlands and pastoral areas, shifting away from highland-only lessons to match local ecology and drought realities.

EV Market Push: JUNTU Technologies has inaugurated an Addis Ababa showroom and after-sales hub for Chery’s OMODA and JAECOO electric vehicles, as Ethiopia shifts away from gasoline and diesel passenger imports and leans on tax incentives to cut fuel-import pressure. Diplomatic-Economic Ties: Ethiopia and the UAE say their “ideal” partnership is deepening beyond leaders into institutions and people-to-people links, with renewed opportunities for foreign business amid Ethiopia’s reform drive. Agriculture & Food Security: BRICS agriculture ministers adopted the “Indore Declaration,” backing farmers’ seed rights, a digital agriculture network, and agroecology initiatives aimed at strengthening smallholder livelihoods and climate-resilient farming. Exports in Focus: Ethiopia reported export earnings of about $9.8bn in the first 11 months of the 2018 Ethiopian fiscal year, surpassing targets and citing stronger performance from producers and exporters. Coffee Outlook: USDA forecasts Ethiopia’s coffee production rising to 12.1m 60-kg bags in 2026/27 and exports up to 7.13m bags, with China emerging as a key buyer as modernization and traceability efforts expand. Budget Pressure: Parliament is reviewing a record 2.34tn birr federal budget for 2026/27, with lawmakers questioning the gap between optimistic growth assumptions and ongoing inflation, unemployment, and the recurrent-heavy spending mix. Research Gap in Lowlands: Ethiopia’s agricultural research system is urged to move beyond highland-focused lessons, with lowland and pastoral areas in Afar, Somali, Oromia and southern regions still under-served. Aviation Cost Shock: Airlines across Africa face rising jet fuel prices and supply strains linked to the Iran war, threatening route planning and margins.

BRICS Agriculture Push: BRICS adopted the “Indore Declaration,” backing farmers’ seed rights, a digital agriculture network, and a platform for agroecology and regenerative farming, with India set to coordinate the global forum on farmers’ rights in seed systems. Ethiopia-UAE Partnership: Ethiopia’s ambassador to the UAE, Jemal Beker, says relations built since 2018 are deepening beyond diplomacy into renewable energy and technology, with reforms opening new opportunities for UAE and other foreign businesses. Italy-Ethiopia Space Cooperation: Italy’s Research Day in the World (GRIM) held in Addis Ababa focused on space research and disaster/climate applications, bringing together Ethiopian space institutions and Italian partners. Ethiopia Export Momentum: Ethiopia reported export earnings of $9.8bn in the first 11 months of the 2018 fiscal year, surpassing its target and citing strong year-on-year growth. Ethiopia Coffee Outlook: USDA forecasts Ethiopia’s 2026/27 coffee production rising to 12.1m 60-kg bags and exports to 7.13m bags, with China emerging as a key buyer. Aviation Cost Pressure: The Iran war is raising jet fuel prices and straining African airlines, with fuel already a major share of operating costs and route reviews underway. Budget Scrutiny: Parliament is reviewing a record Birr 2.34tn federal budget for 2026/27, with lawmakers questioning inflation, unemployment, and the recurrent vs capital spending balance.

South Korea–Italy Deals: South Korea and Italy signed four MOUs in Rome to deepen cooperation in advanced science and technology (AI, quantum, bioscience, space) and to explore joint projects in Africa, including coffee, agriculture and digital education. Ethiopia Coffee Outlook: USDA forecasts Ethiopia’s green coffee production rising 4.7% to 12.1m 60-kg bags in 2026/27, with exports up 2.4% to 7.13m bags; China is emerging as a key buyer as modernization and traceability efforts expand. Cybersecurity for Critical Infrastructure: Ethiopia’s parliament passed a cybersecurity law aimed at protecting telecoms, energy, finance, transport and digital public services from cyberattacks. Maritime Oil Readiness (LAPSSET): As Ethiopia’s oil-linked maritime operations ramp up, LAPSSET ran oil spill training in Lamu to strengthen prevention, preparedness and response ahead of full production. Aviation Supply Strain: The Iran war is pushing up jet fuel prices and straining African airlines, forcing route reviews and raising concerns for the continent’s aviation network. Urban Transformation: A new report highlights Ethiopia’s rapid shift from rural livelihoods toward expanding cities driven by roads, industrial parks, housing and corridor projects. Youth & Jobs Focus: An Africa Development Impact Forum in Addis Ababa urged faster implementation of job-creation ideas, stressing the need to turn policies into execution.

Urban Transformation: Ethiopia is accelerating a shift from rural livelihoods to city-led growth as roads, industrial parks, housing and corridor projects reshape places like Addis Ababa, Hawassa, Adama, Bahir Dar and Dire Dawa. Aviation & Trade Risk: Iran-linked jet fuel spikes are straining African airlines and forcing route reviews, highlighting dependence on imported refined fuel. Cybersecurity for Industry: Ethiopia’s parliament passed a law to shield critical infrastructure from cyberattacks covering telecoms, energy, finance, transport and digital public services. Coffee Sector Update: USDA forecasts Ethiopia’s green coffee output rising 4.7% to 12.1m 60-kg bags in 2026/27, with exports up 2.4% to 7.13m; modernization and traceability efforts are pushing gains. Infrastructure & Environment: As maritime oil activity ramps up, LAPSSET begins oil spill training for staff handling first and last-mile shipments. Oil Pipeline Scrutiny: A new report flags biodiversity and wildlife-corridor risks from the East African Crude Oil Pipeline. Policy & Growth: Ethiopia projects 10.1% economic growth in 2026/27, with industry up 12.6% and agriculture and services also expanding.

Ethiopia Growth Outlook: Ethiopia projects 10.1% economic growth for 2026/27, with industry expected to rise 12.6% and agriculture 7.6%, as Finance Minister Ahmed Shide links momentum to exports, FDI and improved farm productivity. Budget & Reforms: The government’s record draft federal budget (over 2.33 trillion birr) targets continued infrastructure, agriculture, industrial development and social services while keeping macro stability on track. Industrial Transformation Policy: Addis Ababa’s industrial push includes performance-based income tax incentives for investors under regulation 586/2026, shifting support to measurable results. Vehicle Registration Modernization: Addis Ababa begins issuing new national vehicle plates with a unified “ETH” format and RFID/QR-linked databases to curb fraud and streamline enforcement. Hospitality Investment: MIDROC Ethiopia and IFC back an $80m Sheraton Addis expansion and refurbishment, aiming for green-certified hotels and job creation ahead of major events. Food Security Skills: CIMMYT and Ambo University train Ethiopian researchers in applied research and statistical modelling using R to turn farm data into usable evidence. Ethiopia in Regional Trade Talks: Ethiopia is among delegations at the 13th BRICS Urbanisation Forum in New Delhi, where ministers discuss inclusive, resilient and digitally enabled city development.

BRICS & Health/Pharma Sovereignty: BRICS countries are pushing healthcare resilience and “pharmaceutical sovereignty,” citing lessons from COVID-19 and calling for stronger global health governance and medicine-vaccine cooperation. Ethiopia Budget & Reforms: Ethiopia’s draft federal budget (2.339 trillion birr) aims to sustain gains from homegrown economic reforms, with continued investment in infrastructure, agriculture, industry and social services while keeping macro stability. Food Inflation Watch: S&P Global warns food prices could become a bigger inflation driver in emerging markets as fertiliser costs rise and Middle East-linked supply risks feed into transport and food costs. Climate Shock Signals for Food Security: El Niño has returned, with drought and monsoon disruption risks that can hit farm output and raise volatility. Ethiopia Food Security Skills: CIMMYT and Ambo University trained Ethiopian researchers in applied research and statistical modelling to turn farm data into better decisions for productivity and resilience. Refugee & Host Livelihoods: DREAMS programme results in Uganda and Ethiopia show higher consumption, doubled savings and asset gains for refugee and host households through entrepreneurship support plus market access. Digital Finance Push: Connected Banking Summit 2026 returns to Addis Ababa to accelerate digital banking modernization across emerging markets. Vehicle Registration Overhaul: Addis Ababa begins issuing new national vehicle plates with RFID/QR features to curb fraud and streamline enforcement. Tourism Investment: IFC and MIDROC Ethiopia secured an $80m loan for Sheraton Addis expansion and a new green-certified Sheraton property ahead of COP32 2027. Circular Economy Boost: Green entrepreneurs in Ethiopia’s circular economy and waste-recycling ecosystem were supported through incubator and lab programs, backed by partners including the IKEA Foundation. Banking Expansion Interest: Standard Bank/Stanbic is weighing a possible greenfield entry into Ethiopia despite the 49% foreign ownership cap.

Hospitality & Tourism Finance: IFC will lend $80m to MIDROC Ethiopia to refurbish Sheraton Addis and build a new Sheraton hotel in Addis Ababa, with the project aiming at Ethiopia’s first green-certified hotels and jobs ahead of COP32 in 2027. Housing Construction Tech: Ethiopia’s Council of Ministers visited a demo site showing 3D printing, light steel prefabrication, and container housing to cut build times to days or weeks. Banking & Investment Climate: Stanbic Bank/Standard Bank leadership says it is weighing a greenfield entry into Ethiopia despite the 49% foreign ownership cap, citing confidence in start-from-scratch precedents. Circular Economy & Waste: Reach for Change Ethiopia and partners praised green entrepreneurs in circular economy and waste solutions, backed by IKEA Foundation support. Agriculture Investment: Ethiopia reports strong progress from agricultural investment—millions of hectares under projects and efforts to expand contract farming, finance access, and locally developed technologies. Protected Areas Trade-offs: A Nature study says Ethiopia’s protected areas reduced deforestation and farm expansion, but nearby communities may face lower food security and wellbeing. Energy & Renewables Context: A wider Africa energy update highlights the shift toward solar, wind and storage for faster, cheaper power delivery. Forex Watch: The birr saw a modest, orderly slide in early June, with rates moving in increments rather than panic.

Banking & FDI: Standard Bank/Stanbic is weighing a greenfield move into Ethiopia despite the 49% foreign ownership cap, arguing it can still build from scratch and citing early progress in its telecom-linked client base. Circular Economy & Jobs: Reach for Change Ethiopia graduated its 2025 Green Entrepreneurs cohort and opened the 2026 intake, backing youth-led waste management, recycling and circular production with IKEA Foundation support. Tourism Finance: IFC approved an $80m loan to MIDROC Ethiopia’s hospitality arm to refurbish Sheraton Addis and develop a new Sheraton hotel, targeting thousands of jobs for young people and women. Agriculture Exports: Ethiopia’s agricultural investment push is credited with expanding land under investment, boosting contract farming and modern practices, and supporting export earnings and import substitution. Construction Tech: Ethiopia’s housing drive showcased 3D printing, light steel prefabrication and container-based solutions to cut build times to days or weeks. Mining Operations: Akobo Minerals says mining and processing activities are largely back to normal after April fuel disruptions, with processing of newly mined ore set for June. Energy Transition: AP reports Africa’s power pipeline is shifting toward solar, wind and storage for faster, cheaper supply—while financing costs remain a major hurdle. Ethiopia in Global Mobility: Spiro’s $215m fundraising aims to expand battery-swapping electric motorcycle infrastructure, including plans for Ethiopia. Policy & Market Signals: Ethiopia’s draft federal budget approval points to a push for faster transformation, while a separate report flags a managed, modest birr slide that reflects ongoing FX market division.

Cybersecurity & Trade Rules: Ethiopia’s House of People’s Representatives approved draft laws on cybersecurity for key infrastructures and a revised customs proclamation, aiming to curb cyberattacks, reduce contraband, and support manufacturing and investment. Housing Tech: PM Abiy Ahmed highlighted rapid-construction methods for the national housing program after inaugurating Woldia projects using 3D printing, light steel prefabrication, and container housing. Finance Sector Openness: Ethiopia’s capital markets regulator licensed United Capital’s investment banking subsidiary, marking the first foreign investment bank license in Ethiopia and boosting licensed capital market players. Banking Expansion Watch: Stanbic is reportedly considering a wholly owned banking operation in Ethiopia as foreign ownership rules reshape entry strategies. Agribusiness Innovation: Red Fox Ethiopia inaugurated the country’s first beneficial insect breeding center to cut reliance on imported pest-control inputs and reduce chemical risks for farm workers. Energy & Industry Context: Ethiopia’s push for power and industrial growth continues amid regional supply concerns, while Ethiopia’s election and governance backdrop remains tense with conflict affecting voter participation.

Cybersecurity & Trade Rules: Ethiopia’s House of People’s Representatives approved draft proclamations on cybersecurity for key infrastructures and a revised customs proclamation, aiming to curb cyberattacks, reduce contraband, and support fair customs and the growing manufacturing sector. Housing Tech Push: Deputy PM Temesgen Tiruneh highlighted Woldia’s housing demo using 3D printing, light steel prefabrication, and container housing—showing faster delivery of quality homes for the national housing program. Aviation Expansion: Ethiopian Airlines is evaluating bids for 25 new narrow-body jets (Airbus A220/E2, Embraer E2, Boeing 737 MAX 7), with a decision expected within three months as fuel costs tied to regional conflict pressure operations. Industrial Growth & Local Brands: The Made in Ethiopia (Ethiopia Tamirt) movement was credited with boosting domestic demand, creating jobs, and generating foreign exchange. Ebola Preparedness: Africa CDC and WHO launched a unified six-month Ebola preparedness and response plan for June–November 2026, targeting $518m for surveillance, labs, clinical care, and logistics. Energy Security Angle: A new policy focus is emerging on renewables, storage, and EVs as geopolitical shocks expose risks from imported fossil fuels.

BRICS Agriculture Talks: A five-day BRICS Agriculture Working Group meeting kicked off in Indore, with Ethiopia among members, aiming to align on food security, climate-smart farming, agricultural trade, digital agriculture, and farmer welfare, ahead of a joint declaration. Food Safety Push: Ethiopia’s EFDA says unsafe food is still a major illness driver and calls for stronger coordination across regulators, industry, academia, and partners, urging food businesses to adopt quality management systems and expand lab capacity. Dairy Innovation: EIAR launched “Etittuu,” a probiotic starter culture to improve milk fermentation, with officials linking it to higher dairy productivity and reduced reliance on imports. Trade & Investment Linkages: Ethiopia’s honorary consul general in Pakistan met Sindh’s governor to discuss expanding bilateral trade and industrial partnerships, highlighting opportunities in pharmaceuticals, textiles, leather, plastics, chemicals, and packaging. Ebola Preparedness Funding: Africa CDC and WHO launched a unified continental “One Response” plan for the Ebola outbreak, targeting a six-month response and raising $518m to strengthen surveillance, labs, clinical care, and logistics.

Food Safety Push: Ethiopia’s EFDA says unsafe food still drives illness and calls for tighter collaboration across regulators, industry, labs, and academia, urging food firms to adopt quality management systems. Dairy Innovation: EIAR launched “Etittuu,” a probiotic starter culture to boost milk fermentation and cut reliance on imported dairy inputs. Industrial Policy Focus: A new piece highlights Ethiopia’s shift from “factory count” industrialization toward productivity, technology, domestic participation, and higher-value sectors like agro-processing, construction materials, logistics, and green manufacturing. Solar Manufacturing Watch: Toyo announced a $357m, 1.5GW HJT solar cell plant in Houston, noting Ethiopia operations are already affected by U.S. AD/CVD scrutiny. Aviation Growth: Ethiopian Airlines is weighing orders for 25 new narrow-body jets within three months to expand regional and cargo capacity amid higher fuel costs. Energy Resilience Research: A study warns Africa’s solar power pools face rising “synchronization risk” under climate change, threatening regional reliability. Ebola Response: UNICEF is scaling up emergency supplies and logistics for Ebola containment in DRC and neighbors, citing urgent funding needs.

Red Sea Push: Ethiopia’s election week saw a sharper push for Red Sea access, with officials framing it as a “reasonable” and “fair” path to development despite legal constraints and Egypt-linked tensions. Ethiopian Airlines Fleet & Fuel: Ethiopian Airlines says it will decide within three months on new regional jet orders, while grappling with higher jet-fuel costs after the Iran war; it has already shifted fuel sourcing and is using route rationalization plus fares and fuel surcharges to protect margins. Regional Energy Connectivity: Ethiopian Electric Power says it’s accelerating renewable generation and cross-border power links, noting power exports remain under 10% and that studies are underway to expand sales beyond current partners. IMF Support for Ethiopia: The IMF is stepping up assistance tied to the Iran-related shock, with Ethiopia’s board set to consider accelerated access to a $200m tranche alongside a cleared $468m release. Election Count Scrutiny: The National Election Board dismissed two staff for procedural violations as counting continues, with turnout figures still under verification and contested digital materials circulating. Clean Mobility in Ethiopia: Ethiopia’s gas-car ban and local participation push are creating openings for cleaner transport investors, as the country moves toward electric mobility ecosystems. YADEA Electric Two-Wheelers: YADEA debuted its Africa-focused commercial e-motorcycle KIFA at Autoexpo Kenya 2026, building on Ethiopia sales of over 48,000 units and targeting battery-swapping partnerships. Coffee Resilience: Nestlé is advancing climate-resilient, high-yield robusta varieties with partners in the Ivory Coast, aiming to protect supply as arabica faces rising risks.

Aviation & Fuel Costs: Ethiopian Airlines says it will likely make fleet decisions soon on new regional and cargo aircraft, but higher jet fuel costs tied to the Middle East conflict are squeezing margins as fuel rises from ~40% to 54% of expenses; the carrier is also rationalizing routes and using fares plus a fuel surcharge while supply issues are “addressed.” Fleet Decision Watch: Ethiopian Airlines CEO Mesfin Tasew Bekele says a decision on an order for 25 smaller jets (A220, Embraer E-2, and Boeing 737 MAX 7) could come within three months, aimed at domestic and nearby regional routes. Elections & Credibility: Ethiopia’s election count continues amid delays and contested digital material; the National Election Board dismissed two staff for procedural violations while reporting a “mostly successful” process and a turnout figure of 40 million pending verification. IMF Support: The IMF is stepping up financing for Ethiopia and other African states to manage fallout from the US-Iran war, including accelerated access to a $200m tranche for Ethiopia. Energy Connectivity: Ethiopian Electric Power says Ethiopia is pushing renewable power and regional grid links, supplying Djibouti, Sudan and Kenya and exploring sales to Tanzania. Humanitarian Logistics: UNICEF warns that disrupted transport routes and higher costs are delaying aid to children, with vaccine air freight costs up 50–70% for shipments to Ethiopia and other countries. Green Assets Rules: Ethiopia is drafting a centralized carbon market framework that sets the federal government as default owner of carbon rights, shaping how local forest owners and developers trade credits. EV Momentum: Nordic partners signal support for Ethiopia’s electric mobility push ahead of COP32, with investment and technology transfer plans. Digital Payments: EthSwitch reports reaching 1 million daily EthioPay-IPS transactions, winning an African financial inclusion award.