AGP Executive Report

Growth & Costs: The IMF projects Ethiopia’s economy will grow 9.2% in 2026, slowing to 7.8% in 2027. Higher fuel and fertiliser import costs remain a pressure point, with the fertiliser subsidy ceiling raised to Birr 100 billion for 2026/27. Digital Services: Safaricom Ethiopia says it is focused on expanding connectivity and digital services as CEO Wim Vanhelleputte marks 25 years in telecom leadership. Trade & Investment: India and Ethiopia reviewed cooperation in trade, investment, agriculture, renewable energy and mining during Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar’s visit. Pakistan is also seeking faster Ethiopian approvals for pharmaceutical exports. Mining & Agriculture: Ethiopia’s new $50 million precious-metals refinery can process up to 600 tonnes a year, supporting local value addition. KEFI has also resumed development work at the Tulu Kapi gold project. Meanwhile, a Russian-Ethiopian partnership is exploring technology and investment to strengthen agriculture and food security as wheat demand continues to outpace production.

Mining and Manufacturing: Ethiopia has opened its first national precious-metals refinery at Bole Lemi, with planned annual capacity above 600 tonnes. The facility aims to keep more processing and value from gold at home. Economic Outlook: The IMF sees strong growth prospects for Ethiopia but warns of inflation and external-account risks. Agriculture and Food Security: Drought is deepening pressure on farmers across the Horn; the WFP says more than 13 million people in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia face severe hunger after repeated failed rains, crop losses and livestock deaths. Pharmaceutical Trade: Pakistan is seeking faster Ethiopian approvals for its drug exporters, with both sides discussing registrations and technical inspections to improve market access.

Investment: Transsion raised $390 million to develop AI and differentiate its products. The smartphone maker, which manufactures in Ethiopia, dominates African phone sales, though the funding is not earmarked for its Ethiopian operations. Mining and Manufacturing: Ethiopia has launched its first gold refinery, a $50 million joint venture at Bole Lemi designed to process more than 600 tonnes of precious metals a year. The facility aims to keep more refining and value addition in the region. Trade: Pakistan and Ethiopia are seeking faster drug-registration approvals to expand pharmaceutical exports and bilateral trade. Economic Outlook: The IMF projects 9.2% growth for Ethiopia in 2026, but warns persistent inflation and a widening current-account deficit pose risks for businesses and households. Agriculture: Drought threatens harvests and livestock across the Horn, with WFP warning that more than 13 million people in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia face severe hunger after three failed rainy seasons.

Climate Infrastructure: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed called for investment in meteorological data, technology and skills to strengthen early warnings and support agriculture, water, aviation and other sectors. Agribusiness: Ethiopia and Russia are exploring technology transfer and local production of agricultural machinery, building on a sharp rise in bilateral farm trade. Gold Processing: Ethiopia has opened its first $50 million gold refinery, with state-owned Ethiopian Investment Holdings holding a majority stake; the facility aims to process domestic and regional gold and keep more value on the continent. Mining: KEFI has restarted phased development at the Tulu Kapi gold project after a fatal incident prompted a suspension, with work starting on power connections and access roads. Transport: The government is taking over the stalled Kombolcha railway project as London arbitration with contractor Yapı Merkezi nears a conclusion. Investment: Ethiopia has authorized sovereign guarantees for strategic investors, seeking to improve project bankability and attract capital.

Gold Processing: Ethiopia has opened its first precious-metals refinery, a $50 million joint venture at Bole Lemi with capacity to process more than 600 tonnes of gold and silver a year. The government says it will keep more value in the country and serve regional miners. Mining: KEFI Gold and Copper has restarted phased development at Tulu Kapi after a fatal incident halted work in September. Initial steps include restoring grid power and rebuilding access roads, with community resettlement and safety measures planned. Investment and Infrastructure: Ethiopia and the World Bank are setting priorities for a new partnership framework, including private-sector growth, exports, climate-smart agriculture and sustainable infrastructure. Separately, the Ethiopian Roads Administration is piloting a road-safety assessment to identify risky corridors and guide upgrades. Trade Logistics: Djibouti’s ports are seeing more transshipment as Red Sea disruptions divert shipping, but higher fuel, maintenance and cargo-handling costs are squeezing operations and raising prices—a concern for Ethiopia’s key trade gateway.

Gold Processing: Ethiopia has opened its first national precious-metals refinery, a $50 million joint venture at Bole Lemi with capacity to process more than 600 tonnes of gold and silver a year. The government aims to retain more value at home and attract regional producers. Mining: Kefi has restarted phased development at its Tulu Kapi gold project after a September safety incident, beginning with power connections and access roads. Regional Logistics: Djibouti’s ports are handling more transshipment as Red Sea disruptions shift shipping routes, but higher fuel, maintenance and cargo-handling costs are squeezing operations and lifting consumer prices—a concern for Ethiopia’s trade gateway. Manufacturing: Engineers are urging Ethiopia to build more agricultural machinery locally, while businesses face mounting pressure from foreign-exchange volatility and capital constraints. Transport Infrastructure: The government has stepped in to complete the stalled Kombolcha railway as arbitration with contractor Yapı Merkezi nears a conclusion.

Business Finance: Oromia Bank reported a 49% rise in pre-tax profit to 3.82 billion birr for 2025/26, while import-dependent firms face working-capital pressure and price uncertainty linked to foreign-exchange reforms. Agriculture: A dedicated agricultural bank is expected to start operations within three months, aiming to expand lending to farmers and businesses. Engineers are also calling for more local production and assembly of farm machinery to cut reliance on imports. Industry & Investment: Ethiopia’s new national precious-metals refinery is designed to process 600 tonnes a year, helping the country export more value-added gold. India’s foreign minister also met Ethiopian Investment Holdings to discuss deeper investment ties. Transport & Services: Ethiopian Airlines paid about $6 million for carbon credits last fiscal year and expects the cost to grow. The government has taken over the stalled Kombolcha railway project, while Visa and ETTA Solutions are expanding digital payment acceptance.

Investment: Saudi Arabia says trade and investment ties with Ethiopia are gaining momentum, with a bilateral business council exploring new deals. India’s foreign minister also met Ethiopian Investment Holdings CEO Brook Taye to discuss deeper investment partnerships. Mining and Manufacturing: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed inaugurated Ethiopia’s first national precious-metals refinery in Bole Lemi. The state-backed joint venture is designed to process more than 600 tonnes a year, supporting local value addition and export earnings. Transport: Ethiopian Railways has taken over the stalled Awash–Kombolcha railway and aims to complete the first phase within two years, while arbitration with Turkish contractor Yapı Merkezi continues. Finance: United Capital says Ethiopia’s economic opening and new securities-exchange infrastructure are creating opportunities for investors as it prepares to establish local operations.

Minerals: Ethiopia has opened its first national precious metals refinery at Bole Lemi, a joint venture in which state-owned Ethiopian Investment Holdings owns 51%. Designed to process more than 600 tonnes a year, the plant will refine gold and silver for export, aiming to retain more value and foreign exchange at home. Investment: New rules let the finance minister offer capped sovereign compensation guarantees for strategic projects, including infrastructure and industrial investments, to improve their bankability. Transport: The state railway corporation is repairing the stalled Awash–Kombolcha line, with about 70 kilometres restored and the first phase targeted for completion within two years as arbitration with former contractor Yapı Merkezi continues. Logistics: Addis Ababa has formally taken over hosting duties for the 2027 FIATA World Congress, bringing freight and shipping leaders to Ethiopia to discuss trade connectivity and logistics.

Precious Metals: Ethiopia has opened a refinery at Bole Lemi Special Economic Zone, built with Ethiopian Investment Holdings and Sam Precious Metals. It can process more than 600 tonnes a year, aiming to boost local value addition, exports and skilled jobs. Investor Finance: A new regulation lets the Finance Ministry issue capped sovereign compensation guarantees for strategic projects, including infrastructure and industry, to improve their bankability. Railways: The state railway corporation is restoring the stalled Awash–Kombolcha line, with about 70 kilometres repaired and the first phase to Kombolcha targeted for completion within two years as arbitration with the former contractor continues. Trade and Logistics: Ethiopia has taken over hosting the 2027 FIATA World Congress in Addis Ababa, putting its freight and transport sector in the spotlight. Finance Reform: The central bank plans tax changes to remove overlapping liabilities that hinder interest-free finance, a sector with 379.1 billion birr in deposits by June 2025. Roads: Ethiopia has returned about $109 million in unspent World Bank funding as the Modjo–Hawassa expressway project closes.

Digital Payments: Visa and ETTA Solutions are expanding digital payment acceptance for Ethiopian businesses, aiming to bring more merchants into the digital economy. Digital Infrastructure: Fayda operator Faydaverse has opened a sandbox for developers to test digital ID authentication APIs. Fayda has passed 52 million registrations and 208 million eKYC verifications. Mining: Allied Gold says its Kurmuk mine has completed commissioning and begun operations, with exploration pointing to potential resource growth and a longer mine life. Agriculture and Energy: A poor rainy season threatens Ethiopia’s main harvest, while rising oil prices are adding pressure to the import bill. Auto Market: Seven weeks into a tax crackdown on car brokers, Addis Ababa showrooms remain quiet and some asking prices have climbed.

Agribusiness: Nigeria plans to adapt Ethiopia’s mechanised farming model, citing gains in wheat production and exports after a delegation toured farms in Oromia. Digital Commerce: ETTA Solutions and Visa plan to roll out 148,000 contactless payment devices nationwide, bringing card payments and tax-compliant e-receipts to small businesses. Economic Policy: Parliament approved Fitsum Assefa as finance minister as the government targets 10.1% growth and the central bank schedules $840 million in dollar auctions. Mining: Allied Gold says its Kurmuk mine has completed commissioning and begun operations, with exploration pointing to potential resource growth and a longer mine life. Farm Productivity: A new Ethiopian livestock genetics platform aims to improve breeding decisions, while a three-year soil-health project is promoting soil amendments and organic fertilizers to lift crop yields. Trade Pressures: Brent crude rose 40% between July and September while coffee prices fell, putting pressure on Ethiopia’s fuel-import bill and export earnings.

Digital Commerce: ETTA Solutions and Visa plan to deploy 148,000 contactless payment devices nationwide, combining card acceptance with Ethiopia’s tax-certified receipt system. Energy Costs: Brent crude averaged $116.80 a barrel in September, up 40% from July, raising pressure on Ethiopia’s fuel-import bill as coffee prices — a key export earner — fell 8.2%. Cabinet and Industry: Parliament approved Abiy Ahmed’s 22-member cabinet, naming former Ethio Telecom chief Frehiwot Tamru innovation minister and appointing new ministers for finance, logistics and industry. Agriculture: Nigeria’s Vice President praised Ethiopia’s Oromia agribusiness model during a leadership exchange, citing gains in wheat production and self-sufficiency. A new livestock genetics platform launched in Addis Ababa aims to help breeders select more productive animals. Mining: Allied Gold says its Kurmuk mine has completed commissioning and begun operations.

Cabinet and Industry: Parliament approved Abiy Ahmed’s new cabinet, naming former Ethio Telecom CEO Frehiwot Tamru innovation minister and Feseha Yetagessu industry minister. The transport and logistics portfolio has also been restructured as the Ministry of Logistics. Regional Infrastructure: Ethiopia and Djibouti’s planned $660 million petroleum pipeline is expected to take 18 months to build, linking Djibouti’s fuel storage with Ethiopia’s distribution network. Agriculture: One of Ethiopia’s driest kiremt rainy seasons on record threatens the main harvest. Crop losses and disrupted aid could push food prices higher, especially in the conflict-hit north. Mining: Allied Gold says its Kurmuk mine has completed commissioning and begun operations, alongside exploration that could extend mine life. Aviation: Ethiopian Airlines has agreed to buy 10 Boeing freighters, adding cargo capacity to a key regional logistics network.

Food & Agriculture: One of Ethiopia’s driest kiremt rainy seasons on record threatens the main harvest, with crop losses expected in parts of Tigray, Amhara, Afar and Oromia. Conflict is also cutting off aid, raising the risk of food-price pressure. Mining: Allied Gold says its Kurmuk mine in western Ethiopia is advancing toward first gold production, while exploration has expanded mineralised zones and could extend the mine’s operating life. Economic Outlook: The government is targeting 10.1% growth and has scheduled $840 million in dollar auctions; the World Bank has also named Ethiopia among African economies with improved growth prospects. Technology: Ethiopia is expanding AI, applied research and support for start-ups as it seeks to develop home-grown digital solutions. Aviation: Ethiopian Airlines has agreed to buy 10 Boeing freighters, adding cargo capacity as it advances plans for a major new hub at Bishoftu.

Gold Mining: Allied Gold says exploration at Ethiopia’s Kurmuk project has expanded known gold zones as commissioning advances, with first gold expected shortly. The mine’s 2.7-million-ounce reserves could grow, extending its operating life. Growth and Foreign Exchange: Ethiopia is targeting 10.1% economic growth as the central bank schedules $840 million in dollar auctions. The World Bank also upgraded its 2026 Sub-Saharan Africa forecast to 4.3%, naming Ethiopia among countries with improved outlooks. Trade and Logistics: Maersk warns that El Niño-driven heavy rain and flooding could disrupt East African ports and inland cargo routes, including in Ethiopia. Government Restructuring: Lawmakers are considering reorganizing four ministries, including renaming the transport and logistics ministry as the Ministry of Logistics.